项目名称: 基于复杂适应系统仿真的碳交易市场配额分配机制研究
项目编号: No.71271216
项目类型: 面上项目
立项/批准年度: 2013
项目学科: 管理科学
项目作者: 胡东滨
作者单位: 中南大学
项目金额: 54万元
中文摘要: 目前我国是世界上碳排放总量最大的国家,面临的减排压力不断增大。要达到减排目标,提高在国际碳交易市场的话语权,迫切需要建立合理规范的碳交易市场体系。而配额分配问题是我国碳交易市场建设面临的主要难题之一。本项目针对现有配额分配研究中存在的不足,提出采用复杂适应系仿真方法研究配额分配问题。在对碳交易市场运行模式以及配额分配方式对交易主体的行为影响的研究基础上,运用复杂适应系统理论,以参与交易的碳排放企业和金融机构为主体,建立基于SWARM的碳交易市场仿真模型和仿真系统。通过仿真实验,充分研究不同配额分配机制对碳交易市场运行效率的影响及这些影响的制约因素,由此明确各种配额分配方式的适用条件,并用碳交易市场的实证数据验证仿真结果的有效性和准确性。在此基础上,提出适合我国具体国情的配额分配机制,并设计其演化路径,为我国碳交易市场的建立和完善提供更为科学的决策依据和解决方案。
中文关键词: 碳排放权交易;Agent建模;仿真模型;配额分配方式;市场效率
英文摘要: At present, China is the largest carbon emissions country in the world and faced with increasing pressure of emission reduction. It is urgent to establish a normative and standard carbon emission trading market system to achieve the emission reduction targets and improve the discourse right in the international carbon emission trading market. The emission allowances allocation problem is one of the main challenges in Chinese carbon emission trading market building. Direct towards the deficiency of the existing emission allowances allocation research, we adopt complex adaptive system simulation method to solve the problem in emission allowances allocation.By analysis on how the carbon emission trading marketing operation mode and emission allowances allocation policy will influence the trading subjects' behavior, we establish the model and system to simulate the carbon emission trading market on SWARM based on complex adaptive system theory. A simulation experiment will be conducted to find out how different emission allowances allocation mechanisms will influence the carbon emission trading market efficiency, to understand the applicable condition for each emission allowances allocation mechanisms, and verify the validity and accuracy of simulation results with empirical data of real carbon emission trading mark
英文关键词: carbon emissions trading;Agent modeling;simulation model;quota allocation;market efficiency