快速城市化地区的生态风险研究

项目名称： 快速城市化地区的生态风险研究

项目编号： No.40871262

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2009

项目学科： 交通运输

项目作者： 徐琳瑜

作者单位： 北京师范大学

项目金额： 34万元

中文摘要： 快速城市化过程中环境管理的滞后性特征导致了其生态风险的潜在性和高危性，如何识别、评价、规避风险，维持城市复合生态系统正常运转是本研究的主要问题。本研究根据"风险源-风险传递途径-风险受体"之间的链式作用关系，综合快速城市化特征要素，将城市生态风险评价研究分为风险成因、风险传递机制、风险受体暴露、风险分区四个方面。构建了生态系统承载力的系统动力学动态评价模型，揭示生态风险源对生态系统产生压力到生态灾害爆发的量变到质变的动态过程，检控风险源关键因子；结合多介质逸度模型与地理信息系统提出了城市人体健康风险评价模型，实现时间空间双尺度的城市工业化过程的风险传递过程监控；提出了城市累积生态风险评价方法，利用沉积物质量三元法防控风险受体暴露于工业污染所形成的累积性、三致性的风险；开发了区域环境风险评价方法，利用空间信息扩散理论完成风险分级与分区调控。以南京市为主开展案例研究，同时应用于重庆市、北京市、广州市进行对比分析，提出在快速城市化地区实行风险源多角度检控、风险传递途径多介质监控、风险受体长期防控、风险分级分区调控，为城市生态风险管理提供科学依据，使城市生态风险理论与方法更具有系统性和实用性。

中文关键词： 生态风险；城市化；生态承载力；信息扩散；南京市

英文摘要： The hysteresis of environmental management during rapid urbanization results in potential and high-risk ecological risk. How to identify, assess, reduce, avoid the risk and maintain the ordinary running of the urban ecosystem is the primary problem of ecological risk research. Based on the relationship of risk sources, risk pathway and risk receptor, this research integrated three essential elements of urbanization process, urban land use change, population urbanization and urban industrialization, and divided the research of urban ecological risk assessment into four parts, cause of risk, risk transfer mechanism, expose of risk receptor and risk classification. Establish a system dynamics evaluation model of ecological carrying capacity to reveal the particular process of how the risk sources pressure on ecosystem and finally lead to the explode of ecological disaster, so that the key factors of risk resources can be identified and controlled. Based on multimedia fugacity model and geographic information system, the urban human health risk assessment model is established to supervise the risk transfer process during urban industrialization in both time and spacial scales. The urban aggregate ecological risk assessment method, which is based on sediment quality triad (SQT), prevents the receptor from exposing in aggregative, teratogenic, carcinogenic, and mutagenic risk caused by industrial pollution. The regional environmental risk assessment method which is based on spatial information diffusion theory was developed to classify risk level and area and control the risk. This research select Nanjing as main case study, and meanwhile applied in Chongqing, Beijing and Guangzhou for comparative analysis, and propose risk sources identification in multiple perspectives, risk pathway supervision in multi-media, risk receptor prevention in long-term and risk classification and partition control to provide scientific basis and theoretical support for urban ecological risk management, so that the urban ecological risk theory and methods can be more systematic and practicality.

英文关键词： Ecological risk；urbanization；carrying capacity；information diffusion；Nanjing