矿井动力灾害统一预测理论与方法研究

项目名称： 矿井动力灾害统一预测理论与方法研究

项目编号： No.50874058

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2009

项目学科： 金属学与金属工艺

项目作者： 张宏伟

作者单位： 辽宁工程技术大学

项目金额： 31万元

中文摘要： 本项目以板块构造理论为指导，从地质动力学的角度出发，分析了各类矿井动力灾害发生机理和动力源，确定了矿井动力灾害共性影响因素和个性影响因素，揭示了矿井发生动力灾害的地质动力学背景，建立了基于地质动力区划理论的矿井动力灾害统一预测理论。建立了以多因素模式识别为核心的矿井动力灾害的统一预测方法。确定了矿井动力灾害相似性度量准则和矿井动力灾害模式识别准则，应用概率预测方法进行了矿井动力灾害危险区的划分，对矿井动力灾害危险性做出了评估和预测。本项目研究成果从整体和统一的角度建立了矿井动力灾害的统一预测理论和方法，对矿井动力灾害的预测和防治提供了理论基础和技术保障。研究成果在平顶山矿区十矿进行的现场应用表明，所建立的矿井动力灾害统一预测理论和方法对矿井动力灾害的危险性作出的评估和划分与现场实际情况相符，对平顶山十矿矿井动力灾害的防治提供了重要的支撑。

中文关键词： 矿井动力灾害；预测理论；预测方法；地质动力区划；模式识别

英文摘要： The project analyzed the mining dynamical disasters' mechanism and dynamic source, ascertaines the commonalities influence factors, reveales geological dynamics background of mining dynamic disaster and establishes the mining dynamical disaster united prediction theory based on the geodynamic division thoery. Establishing the united prediction thoery of mining dynamical disaster certering on multifactor pattern recognition. Establishing the mining dynamical disaster similarity measurement rule and pattern recognition rule and using the probabilistic method to divide danger area of mining dynamical disaster in mining area, and evaluate and forecast for the fatalness of mining dynamical disaster. The project found united prediction theory and method, from whole and unite point of view, which offer theory foundation and maintenance support for the mining dynamical disasters' forcasting and prevention. The research results of field applications in No.10 coal ming, Pingdingshan show that, the prediction result based on mining dynamic disaster untied predictive theories and methods is consist with the actual, and the it can give important support for prevention and treatment of mining dynamic disaster.

英文关键词： mining dynamic disaster;prediction theory;prediction method;geodynamic division;pattern recognition