施工区道路网络动态可靠性研究

项目名称： 施工区道路网络动态可靠性研究

项目编号： No.51308425

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 建筑科学

项目作者： 陈玲娟

作者单位： 武汉科技大学

项目金额： 24万元

中文摘要： 充分描述施工区路网的动态随机特性，以施工期内同一天的时变网络模型和不同天的日变网络模型为基础构建动态可靠性模型，为施工区路网的交通组织和管制提供决策依据。本项目综合运用宏观配流模型，微观交通流模型等技术方法建立施工区路网的时变网络模型，以累积前景理论结合经验学习机制建立日变网络模型，并揭示时变模型与日变模型的相互关系，最后搭建基于解析法和Monte Carlo模拟的可靠性求解框架。本项目主要研究内容包括：施工区网络随机特性分析；建立时变路网动态交通配流模型；建立施工区影响下的日变出行决策模型；施工持续期内的动态可靠性指标描述方法；动态可靠性求解及变化规律分析。项目研究成果可获得施工区路网在施工持续期的出行特征参数及路网可靠性评价。

中文关键词： 施工区；一日出行行为；逐日出行行为；中途变道；动态可靠性

英文摘要： Through fully description for dynamic stochastic characteristics of the workzone roadnetwork, dynamic reliability model is established based on time-to-time model and day-to-day model ,It is helpful to provide stratage basis and theory support for workzone network's traffic organization and control decision. At first macroscopic flow distribution model and microscopic traffic flow model are integrated to eatablish time-to-time network model for workzone road network, the cumulative prospect theory combined with the experience learning mechanism is adopted to set up day-to-day network model, then the relationship of the time-to-time model and day-to-day model is revealed, finally reliability solution framework is set up based on analytical method and Monte Carlo simulation.The main contents of this project are as follows: stochastic characteristics analysis on work zone network; modeling of time-to-time dynamic traffic flow；modeling of day-to-day travel decision-making; dynamic reliability definition;dynamic reliability solution and variation analysis. The project objective is to obtain travel characteristic parameters of work zone network, and evaluate road network reliability during construction.

英文关键词： work zone；withinday travel behavior；dat-to-day travel behavior；en-route behavior；dynamic reliability