低碳约束下石油价格系统演化及调控战略研究

项目名称： 低碳约束下石油价格系统演化及调控战略研究

项目编号： No.71503132

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 王明刚

作者单位： 南京师范大学

项目金额： 17万元

中文摘要： 本课题从中国国情出发建立低碳发展背景下的石油价格影响因素指标体系，基于多元统计方法和动态分解技术定量给出石油价格与各影响因素间的响应关系；借助大数据技术、复杂网络等理论，定义信息传输函数，构建包含信息传输的新型石油价格波动网络，揭示石油价格变化的动力学特征，引入网络间的传导函数，研究石油价格波动与其他能源价格间的传导关系，进而构建一类新型的石油价格预测体系；考虑中国特定经济转型期背景，基于系统分析方法，构建石油价格系统中众多因素间相互传导的网络结构，在此基础上借助非线性发展方程构建新型的低碳约束下的石油价格-供需-经济增长演化系统，利用系统导出调控石油市场的多种调控策略，数值仿真得到不同调控策略下系统的演化路径，凝练低碳约束下石油价格系统中的核心要素，探讨符合中国国情的能源价格演化理论体系。最后，在以上研究的基础上，给出稳定石油价格市场以及深化中国低碳发展的政策建议。

中文关键词： 低碳发展；石油价格；国际油价波动；能源系统；调控战略

英文摘要： This project researches construct the influencing factors index system of Oil prices in the context of low-carbon development from China's national conditions. The response relationship between oil prices and give each factor will be calculated based on multivariate statistical methods and dynamic decomposition technique. With big data technology, complex network theory , the definition of information transmission function, we will build a network of oil price fluctuations which reveals dynamic characteristics of oil price changes. And then we introduce the conduction function between networks to discuss the relations conduction between oil prices and other energy prices. On the basis of the above research, we construct a novel oil prices forecasting system. A net structure that every element can conduct mutually will be founded based on the causal relationships among oil price, oil supply and economic growth during a given economic period. Furthermore, a novel dynamic system model of oil price-oil supply-economic growth which can make sure the balanced development of energy market will be proposed. Later, many types of regulatory strategies will be offered with considerations of both the background of China’s certain economic transforming periods and the visible hand of control policies. Then regulating effect of the oil market will be obtained. Dynamic behavior of the system and its subsystems will be analyzed by means of Lyapunov exponents and bifurcation diagrams. Evolutionary behavior of the oil market affected by changes of oil prices, oil supply and economic growth will be described with the method of numerical simulation. Finally, based on these studies, we will give the suggestions which stabilize oil prices market and deepening of China's low carbon development.

英文关键词： low carbon development;oil price;international oil price fluctuations;energy system;regulatory strategy