石油价格危机预警分级机制及其智能应急响应策略研究

项目名称： 石油价格危机预警分级机制及其智能应急响应策略研究

项目编号： No.71203081

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 宏观管理与政策

项目作者： 鞠可一

作者单位： 江苏科技大学

项目金额： 19万元

中文摘要： 本项目围绕"石油价格危机预警分级机制构造"及"石油价格危机智能应急响应策略"展开研究，主要研究：1）综合不确定性决策和人工智能技术，分析石油价格危机形成诱因；2）系统地研究石油价格波动的内在机理，从波动周期、波动幅度及波动概率入手，构造石油价格危机预警分级机制；3）对我国石油价格危机应急能力进行评估，找出影响和制约我国石油价格危机应急能力的关键因素；4）构建石油价格危机智能应急响应策略知识库，并运用实例模拟可能出现的石油价格危机，智能化地给出应急响应策略，用以验证石油价格危机智能应急响应策略知识库系统的准确性和可靠性。本项目拟：1）理论上，厘清石油价格危机的形成机理，提出石油价格危机预警分级机制的构造方法，尝试拓展预警理论与技术；2）应用上，项目的研究成果可直接应用于石油价格危机预警及智能应急响应，为相关政府部门和企业提供有益的决策支持。

中文关键词： 石油价格危机；预警系统；知识库；智能响应；

英文摘要： This program constructs an early warning and grading system for oil price crisis, as well as to explore the intelligent emergency response strategy to oil price crisis. The main research contents include four aspects. First, we analyze the incentive of oil price crisis with uncertain decision and artificial intelligence technique. Second, we study the internal mechanism of oil price fluctuations from the aspects of fluctuation period, fluctuation amplitude and probability. Third, we estimate China's vulnerability capability of oil price crisis, in order to measure the oil price crisis response capacity of China. At last, we simulate an oil price crisis and propose the strategy in the emergency based on our intelligent knowledge system. Meanwhile, we verify the accuracy and reliability of such knowledge base system. The program aims to explore the formation mechanism of oil price shocks. We propose a methodology for earlier warning and grading of oil price shock, which could be considered as expansion and development of the technique of earlier warning theory. Furthermore, our program could be applied to oil price crisis early warning and response strategy decision which provides useful decision support for government and enterprises.

英文关键词： Oil price crisis；Pre-warning system；Knowledge based system；Intelligent reponse；