价格波动：粮农市场预期、种植行为响应与政策优化

项目名称： 价格波动：粮农市场预期、种植行为响应与政策优化

项目编号： No.71503038

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 赵玉

作者单位： 东华理工大学

项目金额： 18万元

中文摘要： 在深化农村改革的背景下，如何发挥市场在农业资源配置中的决定作用和政府的引导作用是重要的现实问题。分析农户对价格机制的行为响应是破题的关键。市场预期是从价格信号到农户种植行为响应的重要纽带。本课题在“不确定性-预期-行为选择”的框架下，以粮食主产区农户为调查对象，重点研究了以下内容：粮食价格波动和相对变化的特征以及粮农的市场风险心理；锚定效应、学习能力和信息在粮农市场预期形成过程中的作用；粮农种植行为对粮食及替代作物价格波动、农资价格波动、粮食相对价格、市场预期和政策的响应；在此基础上提出政府引导粮农生产的政策取向。可能的创新在于(1)采用种植行为响应模型研究价格波动、市场预期等因素影响粮农生产行为的微观机理从而使政策设计更有针对性；(2)采用经济学实验考查粮农的风险心理和市场预期形成过程为纠正资源配置偏差提供线索；(3)分析粮食政策对粮农种植行为的影响为相关顶层制度设计提供参考。

中文关键词： 种植行为；价格波动；市场预期；资源配置；政策

英文摘要： With the deepening of rural reform, it becomes an important and realistic problem that how to realize the market and the government's function on the allocation of agricultural resources. The key to solve the problem is analysis on how peasants react on price mechanism. Market expectation is an important link between price signals and peasants’ planting behavior. In the framework of “uncertainty-expectation-behavior choice, this subject takes peasants in major grain producing areas as investigation object to focus on the following contents: grain price fluctuation, characteristic of its relative change and peasants’ risk attitude; the role of anchoring effect, market learning ability and information on the formation of grain peasants’ market expectation; the response of peasants planting behavior to the price fluctuation of grain and its substitute, agricultural materials, grain relative price change, market expectation and grain policy; and the policy orientation to guide grain peasants production based on those researches. There are three topics highlight. First, the use of planting behavior response model to study the microscopic influence of price fluctuations, market expectations on grain peasants’ production behavior makes the policy design more targeted. Second, this research uses economics experiments to examine grain peasants’ risk attitude and forming process of their market expectations to provide clues for correcting the deviation of resources allocation. Third, this research analyzes the influence of grain policy on peasants planting behavior to provide the reference for system designing.

英文关键词： Planting behavior;Prices fluctuation;Market expectations;Resources allocation;Policy