基于相关失效理论的采煤机整机动态最优可靠性研究

项目名称： 基于相关失效理论的采煤机整机动态最优可靠性研究

项目编号： No.61603336

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2017

项目学科： 自动化技术、计算机技术

项目作者： 徐志鹏

作者单位： 浙江大学

项目金额： 21万元

中文摘要： 作为煤矿综采工作面生产核心设备的采煤机，其可靠性不仅事关煤炭的产量，更事关工作面人员设备的安全；然而，迄今为止，国际上对采煤机可靠性的研究，基本建立在各部件或各失效模式间相互独立的假设下并忽略了实际工作载荷对可靠性的影响，导致所得到的预报结果误差较大甚至错误，成为国际上采煤机可靠性研究的一个前沿和难点。本项目，因此提出基于相关失效理论的采煤机整机动态最优可靠性研究：基于相关失效的应力-强度干涉理论，得到各零部件的历史可靠性数据；基于Copula函数和Sklar定理，建立采煤机整机的历史可靠性模型及其动态载荷下的修正模型；提出PSO智能优化的采煤机可靠性OCS在线校正策略，以克服预报模型参数人为选择因素对结果的影响和综采过程不稳定性所导致的模型失配问题，得到最优预报结果，为采煤机最优工况选择、备件储备、维修计划制定提供理论依据，最终达到减少事故发生和设备人员损失、确保安全稳定高效生产的目的。

中文关键词： 采煤机；动态可靠性预报；相关失效理论；动态载荷修正；最优在线校正

英文摘要： Shearer is the core equipment of integrated mining work surface in the mining production, whose reliability is not only related to the coal production, but also related to the safety of personnel and equipment. However, up to now, the research of the reliability of the shearer is mostly based on the assumption that each component or each failure mode is independent of each other and the influence of the actual working load on the reliability of the shearer is usually neglected, as a result of which, the obtained reliability data is not consistent with the actual situation. This has become a leading edge and difficulty in the research of the reliability of the shearer in the world. This project therefore proposes the study on the dynamic optimal reliability of shearer based on common-cause failures theory: obtain the historical reliability data of the components based on the stress-strength interference theory of common-cause failures; establish historical reliability model and the reliability correction model under dynamic loading of the whole shearers based on Copula function and Sklar theorem; furthermore, an online correction strategy (OCS) based on intelligent optimization approach of particle swarms optimization (PSO) is proposed to study on optimal reliability of shearers and assess the real time dynamic optimal reliability of the shearers in the integrated mining process so as to provide the theoretical basis for the selection of optimal working conditions, spare parts reservation and maintenance project and finally achieve the goal of reducing accidents and loss of personnel and equipment and ensuring the safe, stable and efficient production.

英文关键词： Shearer;Dynamic reliability assessment;Common-cause failures theory;Dynamic load correction;Optimal online correct strategy