流域极端水文事件对气候变化的多维响应及预估研究

项目名称： 流域极端水文事件对气候变化的多维响应及预估研究

项目编号： No.51309105

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 曾小凡

作者单位： 华中科技大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 气候变化对流域极端水文事件的影响，受不同时空尺度上气候循环、水文过程、人类活动、下垫面等多因素影响，呈现多维非线性特征，既表现在短时间尺度上极端气候事件异常增多极易引发流域洪水和干旱事件频繁发生，也表现在长时间尺度上气候均值变化将加剧极端水文事件的强度和持续时间等。本项目以流域洪旱灾害频繁且主要受气候变化驱动的长江上游重要支流-嘉陵江流域为例，研究不同时间尺度上气候变化对极端水文事件的影响形式、范围与程度，分析多时间尺度上气候要素与水文极端指标的时空变化特征，构建反映流域气候极值和均值变化与极端水文事件典型指标响应的数学模型及函数，解析流域极端水文事件频率、强度、总量、历时等对气候变化的多维响应机制，并预估流域极端水文事件在最新一代温室气体排放情景下的时空演化格局。项目有助于认识大气圈与水圈之间相互作用机理、促进气候与水文交叉学科发展，并为流域水资源综合配置提供科学依据。

中文关键词： 气候变化；极端水文事件；多维响应；预估；

英文摘要： The impact of climate change on extreme hydrologic events, are influenced by many factors on different temporal and spatial scales such as climate cycle, hydrological process, human activities, land surface condition and so on. The impacts show multi-dimensional and nonlinear characteristics. On the one hand, for the short time scale, increase of extreme climate events is easy to cause the frequent occurrence of floods and droughts. On the other hand, for the longer time scale, changes of climate averages will aggravate the intensity and duration of extreme hydrological events. The Jiajingjiang River basin is selected as the research area, which is an important tributary of the upper Yangtze River basin. Floods and droughts are very often in the research area and are mostly driven by climate change. To study the impact form, scope and extent of climate change on extreme hydrological events at different time scales, the temporal and spatial characteristics of different extreme climate and hydrological variables on multi time scales are firstly analyzed in the Jialingjiang River basin. Some mathematical models and functions are then set up to reflect the relationships between changes of climate and responses of extreme hydrological events, including changes of climate extremes and climate averages. The multi-dimen

英文关键词： Climate change；Extreme hydrological events；Multidimensional response；Projection；