基于计算实验的石油供需网络优化与动态调控研究

项目名称： 基于计算实验的石油供需网络优化与动态调控研究

项目编号： No.71273119

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 孙梅

作者单位： 江苏大学

项目金额： 58万元

中文摘要： 随着我国石油对外依存度的不断攀升，构建高效、安全的石油供需体系是相关决策部门和专家学者亟待解决的热点问题。石油供需系统是一个多主体的复杂系统，受到多元利益相关主体参与以及复杂外部环境的约束。本项目基于计算实验方法，融合网络优化理论，通过理论建模、计算机系统再现、实证分析和对策研究，系统梳理石油供需网络的理论和方法体系。分析不确定因素对石油供需系统的影响机理，在石油及其替代品相互作用网络的层面上研究石油替代调控理论。建立统一优化网络模型，揭示石油供需网络演化规律，寻找鲁棒性最大的网络结构形式或遭受干扰时提高网络鲁棒性的途径。研究在改变约束条件参数特别是政策约束等多种情景下的网络最优解的变化情况。结合实证分析，实现计算实验结果与实践之间的互动，为完善我国石油供需体系提供切实有效地建议。本项目对促进计算实验方法与复杂系统理论在资源管理和政策研究中的应用具有积极的学术意义和应用价值。

中文关键词： 石油风险；多层网络；演化机制；优化；市场调节

英文摘要： With the increasing of dependence on foreign oil in China, building an efficient and security oil supply-demand system is a hot issue that should be considered by experts and scholars as well as decision-making departments. Oil supply-demand system, is a complicated system of multi-agent participating in multi-stakeholders and limiting by the complex external environment. Based on the computational experiment methods and the integration of network optimization theory, this project analyzes the theory and methodology of the oil supply-demand network systematically through many methods, such as theoretical modeling，the computer system representation, the positive analysis and strategy research. It presents the influence mechanism of uncertainties on the oil supply-demand system, and it also addresses the theory in alternative oil on interaction network of all alternative energy. An integrated optimization model is established to reveal the evolutional rule of the oil supply-demand network and improving the robustness of the network structure or looking for approaches that can improve its robustness. This project also studies on different situations of network optimal solution while changing the constraints parameters, especially constraints in policy as well as other various scenarios. Combined with empirical anal

英文关键词： oil risk；multilayer network；evolved mechanism；Optimization；market regulation