考虑风能发电的概率动态电压稳定分析

项目名称： 考虑风能发电的概率动态电压稳定分析

项目编号： No.51307071

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 电工技术

项目作者： 张建芬

作者单位： 暨南大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 针对电力系统中负荷的不确定性和大规模风电并网导致发电机出力不确定性影响系统电压稳定的问题，探究考虑这些不确定因素及其相关性的概率动态电压稳定分析方法。本项目的主要内容为建立电压稳定的概率评估指标，确定电压失稳弱节点的概率判断指标，提出考虑系统多运行方式的无功补偿设备容量优化及其控制器参数优化方法。在考虑不确定性因素的前提下，首先建立电压稳定分析的概率动态连续潮流模型，采用概率特征根技术，求取不同负荷水平下系统的稳定概率，从而确定系统电压稳定裕度的概率分布。接着分析系统电压稳定弱节点和多运行方式的概率对应关系，建立多运行方式下判断系统弱节点的概率指标，进而优化弱节点处无功补偿设备的容量，并且提出优化无功补偿设备控制器参数的方法。最后应用所提出的模型和方法对算例系统进行分析，并将结果与蒙特卡洛方法相比较，验证所建立模型和所提出方法的正确性和有效性。

中文关键词： 电压稳定；风力发电；电压稳定裕度；累积概率；

英文摘要： The uncertainties of random loads and random wind power outputs have effects on power system voltage stability. To address this problem, this project considers these uncertainties and their coherence, and proposes a probabilistic dynamic method to analyze voltage stability. This project is divided into three parts: developing the probabilistic estimation index of voltage stability, presenting the probabilistic index to determine the weak bus under multi-operation conditions and optimizing the capability and controller parameters of reactive compensation devices. Firstly, probabilistic dynamic continuation power flow model is builded. Based on this model, the probabilistic eigenvalue technique is applied to determine the stability probability at different load levels, and the probabilistic distribution of stability margin can be estimated. Secondly, the probabilistic relationship between voltage stability weak bus and the multi-operation conditions is analyzed, so that the probabilistic stability index is developed for determination of the voltage stability weak bus under multi-operation conditions. Thirdly, based on the probabilistic stability index, the capability and controller parameters of reactive compensation devices at weak buses are optimized. Finally, the proposed probabilistic dynamic continue power fl

英文关键词： voltage stability；wind power；voltage stability margin；cumulative probability；