支持多信息融合的装备体系作战效能评估方法研究

项目名称： 支持多信息融合的装备体系作战效能评估方法研究

项目编号： No.60804035

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2009

项目学科： 轻工业、手工业

项目作者： 黄炎焱

作者单位： 南京理工大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 可靠合理的效能评估结果对装备体系论证或采办决策极为重要。获取合理可靠的评估结果需要集成足够的多信息源的支持信息，从而形成稳健的评估结果。本项目采用装备体系对抗仿真信息与专家经验信息及其他信息相融合评估的方法，建立基于信念图表达的不同评估数据的标准化方法，进而建立基于扩展贝叶斯法的多种评估数据源融合评估算法，形成信息可采集、数据可融合及结果可分析的综合评估方法。此外，对异构数据方案的评估，研究了基于仿真与TOPSIS的一体化评估方法，作为融合评估模型有益的补充。对于仿真建模方法的研究，采用了基于DEVS以及有色petri网CPN的仿真建模方法，基于agent的仿真行为建模方法，以及建立了基于JBPM+J2EE的仿真流程管理模型框架以扩大仿真系统的效率和可重用性。基于上述仿真评估方法，对装备体系论证、作战效能决策、突发事件应急效能评估以及装备协同分析等多个研究方向进行了有效的研究。在军事和民用案例的应用研究结果表明，所提出的综合评估方法，不但在理论与方法上可为国防装备体系的论证与采办决策提供可靠与有效的支持，同时也为我国面对非常规突发应急事件的应急体系论证提供一定的参考。

中文关键词： 效能评估;信念图;扩展贝叶斯法;多信息融合;仿真方法

英文摘要： It is important to acquire the reasonable evaluation results of the operational effectiveness to support the demonstration or the acquisition of the equipment systems. In order to get the robust evaluation results, it is necessary to get enough multi-information to integrate into a comprehensive evaluation measurement. In this project, an evaluation method is put forth to fuse the information between simulation data and experts experienced data. This evaluation method is based on the extensive Bayesian algorithm and the Belief Map expression method. The evaluation method framework has characteristics of data collection, information fusion and results feedback. What's more, another evaluation method based on the simulation and TOPSIS is built to analyze the alternatives with different attributes. Simulation is the important method to analyze the operational effectiveness. The modeling and simulation methods based on DEVS/Colored Petri Net/Multi-agent are discussed respectively in this research. The simulation process framework based on the JBPM and J2EE is built to improve the reusability of the C2 simulation system. By means of the above simulation and evaluation methods, many research objects such as the weapon equipment systems demonstration, operational alternatives decision, and the emergency response effectiveness evaluation，and the operational group cooperation plans analysis are carried out to research. The military and the civil applications results show that methods in this project are reasonable, and it is a good reference to the demonstration on the emergency response systems of our country.

英文关键词： Effectiveness evaluation；belief map；extensive Bayesian method；muti-information fusion；simualtion method