武器装备体系架构的跨领域组合决策分析与冲突消解方法

项目名称： 武器装备体系架构的跨领域组合决策分析与冲突消解方法

项目编号： No.71501182

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 葛冰峰

作者单位： 中国人民解放军国防科技大学

项目金额： 18万元

中文摘要： 本项目拟从技术性和社会性两个角度深入分析武器装备体系架构的决策内容和过程，科学统筹推进装备体系各能力领域和各类装备整体协调发展，从而达到体系结构组合方案的灵活性、适应性和鲁棒性，并使不同领域的多个利益相关方一致满意。首先，通过描述敌方转移行为和目标选择概率建立考虑敌方行为的武器装备体系跨领域资源分配策略模型，分析敌方转移行为对于资源分配策略的影响。其次，提出基于偏好规划的武器装备系统组合选择方法用于找出能力准则权重、系统能力水平和费用等信息不完全以及变化预算水平下最具潜力的系统选件以及最具鲁棒性的系统组合方案。再次，提出基于冲突消解模型的武器装备体系群体组合选择方法，允许在不需要事先聚合个体偏好和价值情况下，通过捕获真实的个人偏好和选择行为以及检查群体之间可能的策略交互，达到相互之间一致满意的体系结构系统组合方案。最后，通过应用研究验证方法的可行性。

中文关键词： 武器装备体系；体系架构；偏好规划；组合决策分析；冲突消解

英文摘要： This project aims at making an exhaustive study on the contents and processes of the system-of-armament-systems (SoAS) architecting decisions from both social and technical aspects. As a result, the scientific decisions can be advanced to promote the coordinative development within different capability areas and different systems, and finally reach flexible, adaptive, and robust system portfolios of various types for SoAS architecture that are mutually agreeable among all stakeholders. More specifically, the area-cross SoAS resource allocation strategy model that accounts for adversary behavior is first constructed by formalizing the adversary transference behavior and target choice probabilities, and the impact of adversary behavior on resource allocation is also analyzed. Next, a preference programming-based approach for system portfolio selection is presented to recommend the most promising system options and portfolios with incomplete information on capability criterion weights, capability value, and cost as well as variable budget levels and in the presence of the interdependencies, interactions and synergies among constituent systems. Then, a group portfolio selection approach using the graph model for conflict resolution is proposed for SoAS, in which the extensive analysis of possible strategic interactions among all stakeholders is studied to achieve potential compromises and predict possible mutually agreeable system portfolios for SoS architecture development without aggregating individual preferences and values in advance. Finally, the case study is used to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approaches.

英文关键词： System of Armament Systems;Systems Architecting;Preference Programming;Portfolio Decision Analysis;Conflict Resolution