天山典型流域冰雪水源对径流贡献的量化研究

项目名称： 天山典型流域冰雪水源对径流贡献的量化研究

项目编号： No.U1503183

项目类型： 联合基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 黄粤

作者单位： 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所

项目金额： 50万元

中文摘要： 气候持续升温引起冰雪消融加速，加剧了山区径流的不稳定性。目前多采用站点观测和遥感资料，对冰雪融水、面积、体积与径流变化的相关性做统计分析，而基于机理过程的冰雪对径流影响研究严重不足。同位素示踪技术能定量分割干旱区内陆河的径流组分，但无法反映水资源构成中不同水源份额的长期变化。因此，本项目以开都河流域为研究区，借助耦合冰雪过程的水文模型，研究冰雪对径流形成与分布的定量影响。首先对已建立的VHM-GS模型改进融雪算法和增加冰雪消融模块，并联合多站点径流观测数据和遥感冰雪覆盖数据验证模型，构建一套强化冰雪径流模拟能力的山区水文预报模型；利用改进的VHM-GS模型，基于气象观测数据和多个气候模式在IPCC AR5不同排放情景下的集合预测结果，模拟径流变化过程，定量解析冰雪水源对径流的贡献，评估气候变化下冰雪对山区水资源的影响。本研究将丰富干旱区流域气候变化影响评价体系和方法，提高水资源预测精度。

中文关键词： 水文预报；水文模型；气候变化；水资源安全

英文摘要： Global warming and acceleration of glacier/snow melting have aggravated the instability of streamflow in mountainous watersheds. For the impact of glacier/snow melting on streamflow, most studies focused on statistical analysis of the relationship between snow/glacier melting and streamflow by using station-based observation data and remote sensing data; the researches which are on the base of mechanism process are largely missing. Isotope tracers is able to separate the instantaneous contribution of different water sources, but do not reflect its long term change. The project, therefore, plans to select Kaidu Watershed as a typical study area, by using long time series of meteorological data and global climate model output, investigate the quantitative contribution of glacier/snow melting to streamflow with the help of hydrological model. At first, improve the established VHM-GS model by adding an independent glacier melting module and modifying snowmelt algorithm; the model will be validated by multi-station based runoff data and remote sensing based glacier/snow cover data. Then, the improved VHM-GS model will be applied to simulation the streamflow in historical period (1958 to 2015) and future (2040 to 2099) based on the meteorological observation data and the projected future climate data from multi-GCMs under IPCC AR5 emission scenarios; and the contribution of glacier/snow melting to streamflow will be extracted by employing the simulation results. The study will enrich the assessment system and method of climate change impact on arid inland river basins, and improve the accuracy of water resources prediction.

英文关键词： hydrological forecast;hydrological model;climate change;water resources security