黑河流域节水型农业种植结构优化及动态模拟研究

项目名称： 黑河流域节水型农业种植结构优化及动态模拟研究

项目编号： No.50809055

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2009

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 王玉宝

作者单位： 西北农林科技大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 农业种植结构优化是从区域尺度提高作物群体用水效率及效益的生物节水技术。通过理论分析、数学建模等方法，项目主要取得的成果包括：①#30830;定了区域节水型种植结构优化的三个基本原则。构建了基于作物热力学阈值与生态适宜度模型相结合的作物优选原则；基于农产品需求及资源限制相匹配的作物种植规模确定原则；基于区域水热综合潜力指数与作物生长特征相适应的作物时空布局原则。②#24314;立了节水型种植结构分区指标与方法。提出了综合考虑自然、经济及技术因素的21个分区指标，建立了因子分析与聚类分析相结合的分区方法，将黑河流域划分为6个区。③#26500;建了节水型种植结构优化模型与评价模型。以区域总净产值、粮食总产量、生态效益及水分生产效益为优化目标，建立了基于混沌粒子群算法的多目标优化模型；利用该模型对研究区东部平原粮经灌溉片农业种植结构进行优化，得出经济效益型、粮食安全型、生态效益型和节水型4种方案；采用基于实码加速遗传算法的投影寻踪评价模型对各方案进行评价，研究结果揭示，节水型方案始终是不同水平年的最优方案，该方案在经济、社会及生态效益均有所提高的情况下，可消减约7%的区域种植业灌溉水量。

中文关键词： 黑河流域；节水型；种植结构；分区；优化

英文摘要： The optimization of water saving crop planning (WSCP) is a biological water-saving technology which could increase crops' water use efficient and benefit at regional scale. Some results were approached through the methods of theoretical analysis and mathematical modeling. Main results are as follows: ①hree principles of the WSCP optimization was established. The crop optimum selection principle was based on crop thermodynamic thresholds and ecological suitability model. The crop scale making principle was found on agricultural product requirement and resource restrict principle. The spatiotemporal crop distribution principle was grounded on hydrothermal synthesis potential index and crop growth characteristics. ②he division method of WSCP optimization was founded. Twenty-one division indicators that suitable for Heihe Watershed were selected based on the comprehensive analysis of natural, humanistic and technological factors. The basin was divided into six subzones by combining the methods of Factor Analysis and Clustering Algorithm. ③he models for the optimization and evaluation of WSCP were set up. The optimization model was based on Multiple Objective Chaos Particle Swarm Optimization (MOCPSO). This model has four target functions: maximum total net output, total grain yield, ecological benefits, and water productivity. Four kinds of optimizing schemes which are economic-benefit, food-security, ecological-benefit and water-saving programs were approached using the optimization model. Then a Projection Pursuit Evaluation model for WSCP was put forward by adding Real-coding-based Accelerating Genetic Algorithm. The evaluation results showed that the water-saving program is the most optimized scheme in an arid region with water deficiency and fragile ecology in the three chosen years. After adopting WSCP, economic, social and ecological benefits would be increased under the situation of decreasing sown area, besides, irrigation water would be reduced by about 7%.

英文关键词： Heihe watershed; water saving; crop planning; division; optimization