多因素耦合作用下煤矿事故复杂性机理及其风险度量研究

项目名称： 多因素耦合作用下煤矿事故复杂性机理及其风险度量研究

项目编号： No.71271206

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 李新春

作者单位： 中国矿业大学

项目金额： 48万元

中文摘要： 我国煤矿事故频频发生，不但给国家和人民造成了严重的经济损失，也带来了不良的社会和政治影响。煤矿事故是多个因素共同作用产生的，研究多因素耦合作用下煤矿事故复杂性机理，对煤矿事故实施有效的风险控制，是解决煤矿安全管理的关键问题。 项目将针对诱发煤矿事故危险源的动态性、多变性、时空依托性、模糊性和隐蔽性等特点，研究基于人、机、环境和管理四维一体的多因素耦合作用下煤矿事故复杂性机理；通过对煤矿事故结构的复杂性、因素动态变化的复杂性、外部环境干扰的复杂性以及内部因素相互作用的复杂性等分析，建立多因素耦合作用下的煤矿事故诱发机理模型，详细分析煤矿事故诱发途径；以煤矿事故单危险源的风险概率和风险效用研究为基础，构建多危险源耦合产生风险的度量模型，对煤矿事故风险进行准确及时度量，从而有效控制煤矿事故发生。项目研究对有效控制煤矿事故风险产生，提高煤矿安全管理效率具有重要科学理论指导意义。

中文关键词： 煤矿事故；复杂性机理；多因素耦合；风险度量；

英文摘要： The coal mine accidents are happened frequently in China, which have brought the serious economic losses for the country and the people, also brought the undesirable society and politics influence. The combined action of the multi factors has lend to the coal mine accident happening. The complex mechanism of the coal mine accident is studied under the coupling action of the multi factors in order to control the reisk of the coal mine accident effectively, which is the key to the question of coal mine safety management. In allusion to the dynamics nature, polytropism, space-time depending, fuzziness and elusive characteristics of the hazard that will induce the coal mine accident, the complex mechanism of the coal mine accident will be studied in this project base on the coupling action of the multi factors, which include the people, equipment, environment and management. In order to analysing the induction approach detailedly for the coal mine accident, the induction mechanism model of the coal mine accident under the multi factors coupling will be built by analysing the complex of the coal mine accident structure, the factors developments, the external environment disturbing, and tne internal factors interaction. The risk measurement model of multi factors coupling will be built based on studing the risk

英文关键词： coal mine accident；complex mechanism；multi factors coupling；risk measurement；