考虑乘客异质性的公交通勤行为与福利分析研究

项目名称： 考虑乘客异质性的公交通勤行为与福利分析研究

项目编号： No.71271017

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 田琼

作者单位： 北京航空航天大学

项目金额： 55万元

中文摘要： 道路出行实证研究表明出行者异质性在研究通勤行为时不可或缺。但是在传统的公交乘客通勤行为建模中通常假设乘客同质，没有考虑人们在理想到达时间、车厢内拥挤感受和延误时间成本等多方面的异质性。 本项目在理论研究方面首先假设乘客理想到达时间一致，在多起点单讫点的公交网络上建立基于拥挤/延误成本异质性的乘客出行选择均衡模型。然后放松乘客理想到达时间一致的假设，通过解析分析和数值仿真方法建立乘客异质性与公交系统内客流分布的对应关系。 在实证调查方面将组织人员在北京观测地铁系统乘客流量，并采用问卷调查的方式对公交系统早晚高峰期乘客的异质性做抽样调查，校正模型参数。 最后，基于乘客异质性的研究，对公交系统福利进行分析，研究不同的公交运营方案、定价策略对乘客出行的影响，找到有效的公交管理政策。这将为城市公交系统乘客出行需求的形成、聚集提供理论的解释，为公交系统优化提供依据。

中文关键词： 地铁；异质性；拥挤；福利；

英文摘要： The empirical studies in traffic networks show that the travelers' heterogeneities play pivotal roles in formulating the urban commuting behaviors. However, the traditional way of modeling the passenger congestion in transit system generally assumes that all commuters have the same preferences. This is, of course, an unrealistic simplification: people differ in when they prefer to arrive, how they value arriving at a less-than-most-desired moment (i.e. values of schedule delay), how they value travel time, how sensitive they are to transit in-vehicle congestion, and so on. In this project, we firstly assume the preferred arrival time is the same for every passengers and focus on the heterogeneity of sensitive cost to in-vehicle congestion and the schedule delay cost for each passenger. In a typical multi-origin single destination transit network, a commuter equilibrium model will be formulated to capture the departure time choice problem faced by the transit passengers, who should make the trade-off between in-vehicle congestion cost and schedule delay cost. The equilibrium is defined as a state that no passenger could have the chance to change their choice unilaterally with less travel cost. Consequently, the identical preferred arrival time assumption is relaxed, and a correspondence is expected to build betw

英文关键词： Metro；heterogeneity；crowding；welfare；