青藏高原东北边坡降水的地理影响因子与估测方法研究

项目名称： 青藏高原东北边坡降水的地理影响因子与估测方法研究

项目编号： No.41505036

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 刘维成

作者单位： 兰州中心气象台

项目金额： 18万元

中文摘要： 青藏高原东北边坡处于不同气候区的交汇过渡带，天气特征和气候变化规律复杂，降水时空分布严重不均，生态、环境等问题异常突出。本项目在借鉴国内外降水估测技术有关先进经验的基础上，开展（1）高原东北边坡地区降水的主要影响因子及其影响规律分析；（2）基于地统计理论和滑动区域的影响因子动态加权修正的雨量计降水估测方法研究，以及利用云分类技术的雷达估测降水方法研究；（3）基于主特征提取法、分配权重法等方法融合多源资料的降水估测关键技术探讨，并在试验区域开展应用评估检验研究。上述研究工作将提高对高原边坡复杂地形区降水分布的精细化气候特征和主要影响因子及机制的认识，在此基础上开展适合于该地区的降水估测新方法研究，对改进目前复杂地形条件下降水估测方法、提高预报时空精度和预报效果均有一定的推动作用，降水估测结果也有助于改进数值预报模式初始场资料，同时对进一步了解和弄清青藏高原地区气候特征提供依据。

中文关键词： 数据融合；综合观测资料；遥感反演

英文摘要： The northeast slope of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau belongs to Intersection transitional and different climatic zones. The vary of weather and climate features are complicated.Spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation are severely unbalanced and also with ecological, environmental and other prominent issues. This project basing on the advanced experience of precipitation estimation techniques from domestic and foreign developed several aspects of work: (1) The analysis of main influencing factors of the precipitation in the northeast slope of the plateau region.(2)The study of the rain gauge precipitation estimation method which is basing on the dynamic weighting correction of influencing factors of moving area and the geostatistical theory and Radar-Precipitation Estimation Methods utilizing the cloud classification techniques are also been realized.(3) In this paper, Main feature extraction method,assigning weights method and integration with Multi-source data have been used to probe the key technology of precipitation estimation which has been applied in the test area. The study work of this project will improve the recognize of the mechanisms of precipitation distribution in the Edge of the plateau area of complex terrain with Fine climatic characteristics and the main influencing factors. On this basis, A new method was carried out to research the area suitable for the estimation of precipitation which has improved Precipitation estimation method on the complex terrain and the spatial and temporal forecast accuracy. Precipitation estimation results also help improve the numerical prediction model initial field data. At the same time the project provide a further understanding and clarify the climatic characteristics of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau area.

英文关键词： data integration methods;integrated observation data;remote sensing retrieval