多状态系统性能退化与状态迁移映射机制及其可靠性测度研究

项目名称： 多状态系统性能退化与状态迁移映射机制及其可靠性测度研究

项目编号： No.61463021

项目类型： 地区科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 自动化技术、计算机技术

项目作者： 古莹奎

作者单位： 江西理工大学

项目金额： 46万元

中文摘要： 多状态退化系统性能的动态评定对于提高系统的运行可靠性和推动系统结构优化有着积极的意义，是可靠性领域研究的热点之一。本项目拟通过对能够表征多状态系统部件性能退化的主特征量的筛选、分类、降维及融合方法的研究，获取部件的复合退化特征值；研究多状态系统部件退化机理及退化过程数学模型，建立退化测度函数并获取退化测度，定义退化测度区间并建立部件退化测度区间与其状态空间之间的映射关系，建立部件的可靠性测度函数；通过部件状态空间与系统状态空间的映射研究系统性能退化与其状态迁移间的映射关系，以系统动态概率、状态驻留时间、性能的动态期望函数和动态集成期望函数、状态性能损失和时间性能损失等新可靠性测度，并辅以期望图分析对系统进行动态可靠性评估。以重型柴油机为研究对象，对建立的模型进行验证和修正。通过本项目的研究，以期为在极少失效甚至是零失效的情况下进行系统可靠性评定、寿命预测和故障诊断与预防提供新思路和新方法。

中文关键词： 系统可靠性；性能退化；可靠性评估；状态映射；信息融合

英文摘要： Dynamic evaluation of the performance of multi-state degraded system is of positive significance to improve the operation reliability of the system and to promote system structure optimization, and it is one of the hotspots in reliability research. The selection, classification, dimension reduction and fusion methods about the key degradation features which can characterize the performance of the multi-state component will be proposed to obtain the composite degradation eigenvalue of the component. The degradation mechanism and degradation process mathematical model of the multi-state components will be studied. The degradation measure function will be established to obtain measure value. The degradation measure interval will be defined. The mapping relationship from performance measure interval of the component to its state space will be established and the reliability measures of the multi-state component will be proposed. The mapping relationship from the performance degradation to the state transition of the multi-state system will be established based on the mapping relationship between the state space of the components to the state space of the system. The new reliability measures, such as dynamic probability, expected length of time for each state of the system, performance dynamic expected function, performance dynamic integrated expected function, system state performance deficiency function and time performance deficiency function, will be proposed to carry on the dynamic reliability assessment of the system together with the expected figure analysis method. The established models above will be validated and modified by using heavy diesel engine as an example. This study will provide new ideas and methods to evaluate system reliability, to diagnose and prevent the fault in the case of that there is rare failure or zero failure, enrich and perfect the existing reliability theory and method.

英文关键词： System Reliability;Performance Degradation;Reliability Evaluation;State Mapping;Information Fusion