长春市犯罪时空格局及其影响因子研究

项目名称： 长春市犯罪时空格局及其影响因子研究

项目编号： No.41301143

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 刘大千

作者单位： 中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所

项目金额： 24万元

中文摘要： 基于多种空间分析方法，考察长春市各类犯罪的空间分布格局，辨识各类犯罪的热点地区，并探究其区域特征；对比长春市各类犯罪历年的分布情况，分析各类犯罪在数量和集聚水平上的变化、空间格局的演化、各类热点区域迁移等内容，研究各类犯罪的时空格局对长春市多年来城市扩张和空间结构变化的响应；基于国外较为成熟的相关理论并结合我国特殊国情，从人口、社会经济、土地利用等多个层面，利用多元回归分析、地理加权回归分析等多种方法，探讨影响长春市犯罪分布的相关因子，包括各因子作用方向、强弱、地理分异特征等方面，并深入分析其作用机理；最后，有针对性的提出城市犯罪防控措施和建议。

中文关键词： 犯罪；犯罪热点；时空格局；影响因子；长春

英文摘要： Using spatial analysis technology, the spatial patterns of various crimes in Changchun are examined and the hotspots of various crimes are identified followed by the analyses of characteristics of them; By comparing the criminal distributions of Changchun in different years,the changes in terms of crime quantity and crime concentration level are analyzed. Meanwhile, the evolution of spatial patterns of various crimes,the changes of various crime hotspots are also explored. Further,the relationships between crime changes and city expansion as well as the urban structure changes are discussed; Based on the relevant theories which are used widely and the specific context of China, the influencing factors of crimes distributions in Changchun are explored from the perspectives of population, socioeconomic conditions,land use and so on using the methods of multivariate regressions and geographically weighted regression(GWR).The effect direction, strength as well as the spatial variations of the factors are analyzed and the mechanisms are further discussed; Finally, the suggestions in terms of crime control are proposed according to the main conclusions drawn above.

英文关键词： crimes；crime hotspots；spatial-temporal pattern；influential factors；Changchun