黄河三角洲水盐时空变异及对农业土地利用的影响

项目名称： 黄河三角洲水盐时空变异及对农业土地利用的影响

项目编号： No.41471335

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 黄翀

作者单位： 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

项目金额： 70万元

中文摘要： 黄河三角洲快速而独特的环境与生态系统演变过程，为研究人与自然交互作用提供了理想的范例。黄河三角洲生态与环境演变的重要驱动因子-水盐动态一直是国际地理学和生态学研究的热点和难点。本研究利用长时间序列的野外观测数据与采样数据，将数据挖掘方法与过程模拟相结合，从时间和空间上系统分析黄河三角洲地区水盐动态，探究黄河三角洲水盐变异的多尺度特征与驱动机制。在此基础上，将水盐过程与农业土地利用过程进行耦合，探究水盐变异与农业土地利用的协同演化，构建水盐限制条件下的黄河三角洲农业土地利用格局优化模型，为黄河三角洲地区农业开发和粮食增产提供科学支撑，也为具有相似生态条件的环渤海盐渍化地区土地资源开发提供示范。

中文关键词： 生态系统建模；时空优化配置；土地利用建模；时空预测

英文摘要： The special evolution of the modern Yellow River Delta provides a good example for studying the interaction of nautral processes and human activities. In this study spatio-temporal dynamics of groundwater and soil salt at different scales will be investigated. One purpose is to apply time series analysis to investigate whether the groundwater level and quality in the Yellow River Delta are affected by the tide and runoff. Continuous and regular in situ monitoring data of electrical conductivity (EC) and groundwater level data were used for the time series analysis. Then the impact of groundwater and soil salt on the agricultural land use will be analyzed. A geographically weighted regression kriging (GWRK) will be developed in this study to examine the relationships between environmental variables and soil salt pattern. At last, land use optimization allocation model will be established through a multi-agent system, which defines respectively the decision making rules of the related agents including the central government of the region, the branches of the government, and the land users practically using the land. This project can provide auxiliary support and scientific references for the decision making associated with land salinization and sustainable regional land use in the Yellow River Delta.

英文关键词： ecological modelling;soil salt;groundwater dynamics;spatio-temporal variation