中国东南沿海地区霍乱发病时空分布规律及预测模型研究

项目名称： 中国东南沿海地区霍乱发病时空分布规律及预测模型研究

项目编号： No.41301502

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 徐敏

作者单位： 中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 霍乱是一种由霍乱弧菌引起的急性肠道传染病，其发病与传播受水文、气象、地理等多种环境要素的影响。霍乱在空间尺度上，由于环境差异大、影响因素多，而具有明显的区域性差异，沿海地区霍乱发病与传播比内陆地区相比其环境影响要素更加复杂。遥感技术能够定量地获取地球环境相关信息，且具有安全、不受地理环境条件限制、覆盖面广、信息量丰富、可连续重复观测等优点，可以为包括霍乱在内的流行病学研究提供丰富的空间环境数据。本课题利用遥感、GIS等空间信息技术对中国东南沿海地区霍乱发病的时空分布规律进行探索性分析研究；基于宏观环境-SIR模型的框架，考虑霍乱的二次传播性，通过综合分析环境危险要素及已感染人群对新增病例的影响，利用海表面温度、海表面高度、海水叶绿素浓度等海洋遥感数据、气象数据、水文数据及历史霍乱数据对东南沿海地区霍乱发病进行时序预测分析研究，为霍乱的早期预警和有效防控提供科学支持。

中文关键词： 霍乱；遥感；地理信息系统；预测模型；危险要素

英文摘要： Cholera is an acute intestinal infectious disease which is caused by Vibrio Cholerae. The outbreaks and transmission of Cholera affected by hydrologic, meteorological, geographical and some other environmental factors. There are significant regional differences because of the environmental differences in spatial scale and too many impact factors.The coastal areas has more complex envrionmental factors than inland areas. The technology of remote sensing(RS) can quantitatively acquire the environmental information of the earth, and has the advantages of safe usage, free from geographical constraints, wide coverage, plenty information and continuous repeated observations, which can provide spatial environmental data for the research of epidemic including cholera and so on. The reserch summerazes the spatio-temporal distribution of Chorea in the southeast coastal area of China using RS and GIS. And synthetically analyzes the impact of the the sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and ocean chlorophyll concentration (OCC) and some climatic environmental factors. To consider the secondary transmission of cholera, the research build a prediction model according to the Macro environment-SIR frame using oceanic, meteorological data and historical cholera data which may provide scientific support to the

英文关键词： cholera；remote sensing；GIS；prediction model；envionmental risky factors