不同重现期风暴潮极端高水位的预测方法研究

项目名称： 不同重现期风暴潮极端高水位的预测方法研究

项目编号： No.51209040

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 水利科学与海洋工程学科

项目作者： 徐宿东

作者单位： 东南大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 我国风暴潮频发，海岸带区域经济发展迅速，海岸防护标准需相应提高。然而我国已有潮位系列大多较短，尚难利用传统的频率分析方法推求100年甚至500年一遇的极端水位，并且现有风暴潮水动力计算取得水位尚难确定其相应重现期。本项目拟根据已有年份历史风暴潮要素采用Monte Carlo模型产生所需重现期的风暴潮要素，结合水动力模型Adcirc计算研究区域极端水位的数值模拟方法解决现有问题。拟将上海吴淞和浙江澉浦作为例子并结合拥有88、99年数据的美国Pensacola,Fernandina进行研究，研究内容包括：（1）研究区域历史风暴潮驱动要素的重新组合（2）重组后的风暴潮驱动要素情况下的水动力模型计算及相应最高水位的重现期确定。（3）结合频率分析方法以及实测历史年最高水位来分析和检验模型的计算结果。最终形成一套准确、高效可推广的风暴潮极端水位的计算方法。

中文关键词： 风暴潮；极端水位；随机模型；海平面上升；频率分析

英文摘要： The coastline of China is vulnerable to storm surge, with the rapid economic development in the coastal areas, the design criteria for coastal protection engineering need to be increased correspondingly. The historical tidal water level datasets are usually not long and not suitable to be used to estimate 100 year even 500 year extreme high water levels. The high water levles simulated by storm surge hydrodynamic can not get the correponding return year. In this study, the storm surge forcing factors are simulated by Monte Carlo model based on historical strom surge factors. With Adcirc hydrodynamic model, the extreme water levels are simulated in the studied area. The stations of Wusong in Shanghai and Ganpu in Zhejiang province are chosen for this study. Pensacola and Fernandina in America with 88 and 99 years datasets are also chosen for comparison. The study contents include: (1)Stochastic simulation of historical typhoon storm surge forcing factors. (2)Hydrodynamic simulation on reconstructed storm surge forcing factors and the determination on return periods of the corresponding maximum water levels. (3)Analysis and verification on the proposed integrated model by comparing with frequency analysis methods. An accurate, efficient and widely applied method in estimating storm surge extreme water level is pro

英文关键词： storm surge；extreme water level；stochastic model；sea level rise；ferquency analysis