生猪产业链健康状态波动机理与临界情境仿真研究

项目名称： 生猪产业链健康状态波动机理与临界情境仿真研究

项目编号： No.71303040

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 王刚毅

作者单位： 东北农业大学

项目金额： 22万元

中文摘要： 本项目在系统认识生猪产业链健康的内涵、特征、构成和演化的基础上，以产业链管理、自组织理论、物场理论、委托代理理论和系统分析思想为指导，以促进生猪产业链收益分配合理、成本分摊公平、风险分担有效、利益保障稳定、价值创新增益为目的，运用专家调查、比较分析、价值分析、风险分析、博弈分析、因果循环反馈分析等方法和Matlab仿真工具，重点研究生猪产业链健康状态测度指标体系、生猪产业链健康状态波动机理、生猪产业链健康状态临界情境系统仿真与实证、生猪产业链健康状态波动调控对策框架与内容，为解决我国生猪产业链数量与质量安全、价格超常波动、健康状态无序波动及风险谐振、中观调控对策缺失导致宏观政策和微观策略失效等重大问题，提供认识基础、分析框架、理论依据、方法支撑和方案借鉴，具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。

中文关键词： 生猪；产业链健康；临界情境；约束条件；仿真

英文摘要： The project based on systematically cognizing the connotation, feature, development regularity and mode of pig industry chain health, guided by theories of industry-chain management, self-organization, object field, principal agent and the thought of system analysis, aimed at increasing the income distribution reasonableness, the cost apportionment fairness, the risk allocation effectiveness, benefit safeguard stability and value innovation gain, utilizes methods of Expert Surveys, Comparative Analysis, Value Analysis, Game Analysis, Cause and Feedback Loops, etc. and Matlab analogue simulation to focus on discussing the measurement index system, wave mechanism, system simulation and demonstration on critical point, Fluctuation regulation countermeasure system framework and content of pig industry chain health. The project provides knowledge foundation, the analysis framework, theoretical basis, methods, support and solutions for solving the problems on quantity and quality safety, abnormal price fluctuations, disorderly movement and risk resonance, macro-policies and micro-policies failure caused of invalid medium regulation. Therefore, this project is filled with important theoretical value and practical significance.

英文关键词： Hogs；Industrial chain health；Critical situation；Constraints；Simulation