非正态、相关变量及概率信息不全时可靠性灵敏度的理论与应用研究

项目名称： 非正态、相关变量及概率信息不全时可靠性灵敏度的理论与应用研究

项目编号： No.50875213

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2009

项目学科： 武器工业

项目作者： 吕震宙

作者单位： 西北工业大学

项目金额： 37万元

中文摘要： 针对飞机等复杂结构系统，建立工程普适前提下局部和全局可靠性灵敏度理论体系。①#22522;础理论方面：建立非正态及概率信息不全情况下相关变量参数的变换解耦模型，研究非正态、相关向正态、独立转换时转换次序对可靠性灵敏度的影响规律，得到确定最佳转换次序的方法。②#20998;析方法方面：建立非正态、相关变量及概率信息不全情况下可靠性灵敏度分析的点估计法、高效数字模拟法和函数替代法。着重解决点估计法、线抽样、方向抽样和子集模拟等对非正态、相关变量及概率信息不全的适应性问题，建立数字模拟结果的方差分析模型和置信限模型。研究函数替代法中近似函数与确定近似函数的试验点的配合选择问题，以提高该类方法的精度和效率。③#24037;程应用方面：开发工程普适前提下的可靠性灵敏度分析软件，并开发其与复杂结构力学性能分析有限元及优化软件的连接接口，实现对典型飞机结构的可靠性灵敏度分析与可靠性设计优化。该项目对发展可靠性理论和推动其应用具有重大意义。

中文关键词： 可靠性；灵敏度；相关变量；非正态变量；不完全概率信息。

英文摘要： For complicated structure such as aircraft, local and global reliability sensitivity methods are established in general engineering environment. In the basic theory, uncoupling model is presented for the reliability sensitivity with correlative nonnormal variables and limited statistical information. Since the reliability sensitivity is impacted by the transformation permutation from the correlative nonnormal variables to the independent normal ones, the laws of these impacts and the optimal permutation of the transformation are researched. In the analysis procedures, the point estimation, the advanced numerical simulations and the function surrogate methods are established for the reliability sensitivity of the general engineering application with the correlative nonnormal variables and the limited statistical information. The solutions of the suitabilities to the general engineering applications are emphasized for the point estimation, line sampling, directional sampling and subset simulation. The variance analysis model and the confidence interval model are established for the numerical reliability sensitivity simulation. How the surrogate function matches the experiment points is also researched. On the solved optimal match, the efficiency and the precision of the function surrogate method will be improved for the reliability sensitivity analysis. In the engineering application, the software of the reliability sensitivity analysis is developed, and its combinations with commercial finite element software and commercial optimization software are programmed for the reliability based optimization design of the complicated structure. The programmed software will be used to realize the reliability sensitivity analysis and the reliability based optimization design of the classical aircraft structure. This project is very important for the theory development and the engineering application of the reliability.

英文关键词： reliability; sensitivity; correlative variable; nonnormal variable; limited statistical information.