基于概率及证据理论的航天器不确定性多学科设计优化研究

项目名称： 基于概率及证据理论的航天器不确定性多学科设计优化研究

项目编号： No.51205403

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 机械工程学科

项目作者： 姚雯

作者单位： 中国人民解放军国防科学技术大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 为有效预防航天器在轨故障，需要在设计阶段充分考虑各类不确定性影响，提高航天器的稳健性和可靠性。在航天器设计过程中，既存在航天器及其运行环境固有的随机不确定性，也存在由于人员认识不足或信息缺乏导致的认知不确定性。航天器的多学科特性以及学科间各类不确定性混合交叉传递影响，导致考虑不确定性的航天器设计过程复杂、计算成本高昂、工程实现困难。为此，本项目将基于概率及证据理论，深入研究随机和认知不确定性混合条件下的多学科设计优化方法（MUMDO），并探索其在航天器设计中的应用。项目将以提高MUMDO的求解效率和优化效果为目标，重点突破混合不确定性分析和混合不确定性优化两项关键技术，并将其分别应用于单个航天器和多航天器系统的总体设计优化中，验证其可行性和有效性。通过本项目的研究，将形成工程实用性较强的MUMDO方法，初步建立基于MUMDO的航天器总体设计流程，并为MUMDO在其它领域的推广应用奠定基础。

中文关键词： 多学科设计优化；不确定性；航天器总体设计；可靠性；稳健性

英文摘要： To effectively prevent spacecraft failures, it is necessary to take uncertainties into account comprehensively in design phase so as to enhance spacecraft robustness and reliability. In the multidisciplinary spacecraft system design, there exist both aleatory uncertainties due to the inherent variation of the spacecraft and its operational environment, and epistemic uncertainties resulting from lack of knowledge and information. Due to the interdisciplinary cross propagation of the mixed aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, the uncertainty-based optimization is extremely complex to solve and entails huge computational cost which is unaffordable in practical engineering. Aiming to solve this problem, we propose to systematically study the Mixed Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty-based Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MUMDO) method and its application in spacecraft system design based on probability and evidence theory. The research will be focused on two most important issues of MUMDO which need be addressed urgently, namely mixed uncertainty analysis and mixed uncertainty-based optimization, so as to improve the optimization efficiency and effectiveness of MUMDO and enable it to be applicable in practical engineering. The feasibility and effectiveness of the aforementioned methods will be validated and de

英文关键词： Multidisciplinary Design Optimization；Uncertainty；Spacecraft System Design；Reliability；Robustness