Identifying and mitigating safety risks is paramount in a number of industries. In addition to guidelines and best practices, many industries already have safety management systems (SMSs) designed to monitor and reinforce good safety behaviors. The analytic capabilities to analyze the data acquired through such systems, however, are still lacking in terms of their ability to robustly quantify risks posed by various occupational hazards. Moreover, best practices and modern SMSs are unable to account for dynamically evolving environments/behavioral characteristics commonly found in many industrial settings. This article proposes a method to address these issues by enabling continuous and quantitative assessment of safety risks in a data-driven manner. The backbone of our method is an intuitive hierarchical probabilistic model that explains sparse and noisy safety data collected by a typical SMS. A fully Bayesian approach is developed to calibrate this model from safety data in an online fashion. Thereafter, the calibrated model holds necessary information that serves to characterize risk posed by different safety hazards. Additionally, the proposed model can be leveraged for automated decision making, for instance solving resource allocation problems -- targeted towards risk mitigation -- that are often encountered in resource-constrained industrial environments. The methodology is rigorously validated on a simulated test-bed and its scalability is demonstrated on real data from large maintenance projects at a petrochemical plant.
翻译:在许多行业中,查明和减轻安全风险至关重要。除了准则和最佳做法外,许多行业已经建立了安全管理系统,旨在监测和加强良好的安全行为。然而,分析通过这种系统获得的数据的分析能力仍然缺乏,无法对各种职业危害构成的风险进行有力的量化。此外,最佳做法和现代安全管理系统无法说明许多工业环境中常见的动态变化环境/行为特征。除了提出一种解决这些问题的方法,即以数据驱动的方式对安全风险进行连续和定量评估。我们的方法的骨干是一种直观的等级概率模型,解释典型的安全管理系统所收集的安全数据稀少和杂乱。正在开发一种完全的巴伊西亚方法,以在线方式将这种模型与安全数据加以校准。此后,经过校准的模型掌握了必要的信息,用以确定不同安全风险所构成的风险特征。此外,可以利用拟议的模型进行自动决策,例如解决资源分配问题 -- -- 以减少风险为目标 -- -- -- 这个问题往往是在资源封缺的工业环境中经常遇到的。经过严格验证的模型是经过验证的、在真实的化学环境中经过验证的模型。