In a non-sustainable, "over-populated" world, what might the use of nanotechnology-based targeted, autonomous weapons mean for the future of humanity? In order to gain some insights, we make a simplified game-theoretical thought experiment. We consider a population where agents play the public goods game, and where in parallel an epidemic unfolds. Agents that are infected defectors are killed with a certain probability and replaced by susceptible cooperators. We show that such "nanowars", even if aiming to promote good behavior and planetary health, fail not only to promote cooperation, but they also significantly increase the probability of repetitive epidemic waves. In fact, newborn cooperators turn out to be easy targets for defectors in their neighborhood. Therefore, counterintuitively, the discussed intervention may even have the opposite effect as desired, promoting defection. We also find a critical threshold for the death rate of infected defectors, beyond which resurgent epidemic waves become a certainty. In conclusion, we urgently call for international regulation of nanotechnology and autonomous weapons.
翻译:在一个不可持续、“人口过多”的世界中,使用纳米技术定向自主武器对于人类的未来意味着什么?为了获得一些洞察力,我们做了一个简化的游戏理论思维实验。我们考虑的是代理玩公共商品游戏,同时出现流行病的人群。受感染的叛逃者被某种可能性杀死,代之以易受感染的合作者。我们表明,即使旨在促进良好行为和行星健康的“野战 ”, 也不仅未能促进合作,而且它们也大大增加了重复性流行病波的概率。事实上,新生合作者在他们周围很容易成为叛逃者的目标。因此,反直觉而言,讨论的干预甚至可能产生预期的相反效果,促进叛逃。我们还找到了受感染的叛逃者死亡率的关键门槛,超过这个临界点,再生的流行病波就变得确定无疑。最后,我们紧急呼吁对纳米技术和自主武器进行国际监管。