Acting upon Imagination: when to trust imagined trajectories in model based reinforcement learning

Model based reinforcement learning (MBRL) uses an imperfect model of the world to imagine trajectories of future states and plan the best actions that maximize a given reward. These trajectories are imperfect and MBRL attempts to overcome this by relying on model predictive control (MPC) to continuously re-imagine trajectories from scratch. Such re-generation of imagined trajectories carries the major computational cost and increasing complexity in tasks with longer receding horizon. We investigate how far in the future the imagined trajectories can be relied upon while still maintaining acceptable reward. After taking each action, information becomes available about its immediate effect and its impact on outcomes expected of future actions. Hereby, we propose four methods for deciding whether to trust and act upon imagined trajectories: i) looking at recent errors with respect to expectations, ii) comparing the confidence in an action imagined against its execution, iii) observing the deviation in projected future states iv) observing the deviation in projected future rewards. An experiment analyzing the effects of acting upon imagination shows that our methods reduce computation by at least 20\% and up to 80\%, depending on the environment, while retaining acceptable reward.