Two new Bayesian methods for estimating and predicting in-game home team win probabilities are proposed. The first method has a prior that adjusts as a function of lead differential and time elapsed. The second is an adjusted version of the first, where the adjustment is a linear combination of the Bayesian estimator with a time-weighted pre-game win probability. The proposed methods are compared to existing methods, showing the new methods perform better for both estimation and prediction. The utility is illustrated via an application to the 2016 NCAA Division 1 Championship game.
翻译：提出了两种新的贝叶斯新方法,用于估算和预测游戏中家庭团队赢赢概率。第一种方法先根据铅差和时间间隔的函数进行调整。第二种方法是第一个方法的调整版本,其中调整是巴伊西亚估算员的线性组合,有时间加权的比赛前赢赢概率。拟议方法与现有方法进行比较,显示新的估算和预测方法效果更好。其效用通过2016年NCAA第1场冠军赛的应用加以说明。
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