Generating power system states that have similar distribution and dependency to the historical ones is essential for the tasks of system planning and security assessment, especially when the historical data is insufficient. In this paper, we described a generative model for load profiles of industrial and commercial customers, based on the conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) neural network architecture, which is challenging due to the highly variable nature of such profiles. Generated contextual load profiles were conditioned on the month of the year and typical power exchange with the grid. Moreover, the quality of generations was both visually and statistically evaluated. The experimental results demonstrate our proposed CVAE model can capture temporal features of historical load profiles and generate `realistic' data with satisfying univariate distributions and multivariate dependencies.
翻译:产生与历史相类似的分布和依赖性的动力系统,对于系统规划和安全评估的任务至关重要,特别是在历史数据不足的情况下。本文介绍了一个基于有条件的变式自动电算器神经网络结构的工业和商业客户负荷剖面图的基因模型,由于这些剖面图的高度差异性质,这一模型具有挑战性。生成的上下文剖面图以当月为条件,并与电网进行典型的电源交换。此外,对几代人的质量进行了视觉和统计两方面的评估。实验结果表明,我们提议的CVAE模型可以捕捉历史负荷剖面图的时间特征,产生“现实”数据,满足了单向分布和多变量依赖性。