Multiple change point detection under serial dependence: Wild energy maximisation and gappy Schwarz criterion

We propose a methodology for detecting multiple change points in the mean of an otherwise stationary, autocorrelated, linear time series. It combines solution path generation based on the wild energy maximisation principle, and an information criterion-based model selection strategy termed gappy Schwarz criterion. The former is well-suited to separating shifts in the mean from fluctuations due to serial correlations, while the latter simultaneously estimates the dependence structure and the number of change points without performing the difficult task of estimating the level of the noise as quantified e.g. by the long-run variance. We provide modular investigation into their theoretical properties and show that the combined methodology, named WEM.gSC, achieves consistency in estimating both the total number and the locations of the change points. The good performance of WEM.gSC is demonstrated via extensive simulation studies, and we further illustrate its usefulness by applying the methodology to London air quality data.