We outline how to create a mechanism that provides an optimal way to elicit, from an arbitrary group of experts, the probability of the truth of an arbitrary logical proposition together with collective information that has an explicit form and interprets this probability. Namely, we provide strong arguments for the possibility of the development of a self-resolving prediction market with play money that incentivizes direct information exchange between experts. Such a system could, in particular, motivate experts from all over the world to collectively solve scientific or medical problems in a very efficient manner. In our main considerations about real experts, they are not assumed to be Bayesian and their behavior is described by utilities that satisfy the von Neumann--Morgenstern axioms only locally.
翻译:我们概述了如何建立一个机制,为从一个专断的专家组中获取任意逻辑主张的真相的概率以及具有明确形式和解释这种可能性的集体信息提供一个最佳途径。 也就是说,我们为开发一个自我解决的预测市场提供了有力的论据,这个市场可以玩弄金钱,鼓励专家之间直接交流信息。 这样一个系统尤其能够激励来自世界各地的专家以非常有效的方式集体解决科学或医学问题。 在我们对真正专家的主要考虑中,他们不被认为是巴耶斯人,他们的行为只能由满足冯纽曼-摩根斯特尔轴心的公用事业公司描述。