An important step for any causal inference study design is understanding the distribution of the treated and control subjects in terms of measured baseline covariates. However, not all baseline variation is equally important. In the observational context, balancing on baseline variation summarized in a propensity score can help reduce bias due to self-selection. In both observational and experimental studies, controlling baseline variation associated with the expected outcomes can help increase the precision of causal effect estimates. We propose a set of visualizations which decompose the space of measured covariates into the different types of baseline variation important to the study design. These ``assignment-control plots'' and variations thereof visually illustrate core concepts of causal inference and suggest new directions for methodological research on study design. As a practical demonstration, we illustrate one application of assignment-control plots to a study of cardiothoracic surgery. While the family of visualization tools for studies of causality is relatively sparse, simple visual tools can be an asset to education, application, and methods development.
翻译:任何因果推断研究设计的一个重要步骤是了解按所测基准共变法计算的被处理和控制对象的分布情况,但并非所有基线差异都同样重要。在观察方面,平衡一种倾向性分数所总结的基准变异有助于减少自选偏差。在观察和实验研究方面,控制与预期结果有关的基线变异有助于提高因果关系估计的精确度。我们提出一套可视化方法,将测量的共变空间分解成对研究设计十分重要的不同类型基线变异。这些“分配控制区”及其变异,直观地说明了因果关系推断的核心概念,提出了研究设计方法研究的新方向。作为一个实际示范,我们举例说明了对心血管外科手术研究的一种应用。虽然用于因果关系研究的可视化工具种类相对稀少,但简单视觉工具可以成为教育、应用和方法开发的资产。