This paper describes an agent-based model of epidemics dynamics. This model is willingly simplified, as its goal is not to predict the evolution of the epidemics, but to explain the underlying mechanisms in an interactive way. This model allows to compare screening prioritisation strategies, as well as vaccination priority strategies, on a virtual population. The model is implemented in Netlogo in different simulators, published online to let people experiment with them. This paper reports on the model design, implementation, and experimentations. In particular we have compared screening strategies to evaluate the epidemics vs control it by quarantining infectious people; and we have compared vaccinating older people with more risk factors, vs younger people with more social contacts.
翻译:本文描述了一种基于病原体的流行病动态模型。 这个模型是自愿简化的,因为它的目的不是预测流行病的演变,而是以互动的方式解释基本机制。 这个模型可以比较虚拟人口的筛选优先战略以及疫苗接种优先战略。这个模型在Netlogo在不同模拟器中实施,在网上公布,让人们进行试验。这个模型报告了模型的设计、实施和实验。特别是,我们比较了筛查战略,通过对感染者进行检疫来评价流行病相对于控制流行病;我们比较了对老年人进行疫苗接种的风险因素,比对了社会接触较多的年轻人。