India has a maternal mortality ratio of 113 and child mortality ratio of 2830 per 100,000 live births. Lack of access to preventive care information is a major contributing factor for these deaths, especially in low resource households. We partner with ARMMAN, a non-profit based in India employing a call-based information program to disseminate health-related information to pregnant women and women with recent child deliveries. We analyze call records of over 300,000 women registered in the program created by ARMMAN and try to identify women who might not engage with these call programs that are proven to result in positive health outcomes. We built machine learning based models to predict the long term engagement pattern from call logs and beneficiaries' demographic information, and discuss the applicability of this method in the real world through a pilot validation. Through a randomized controlled trial, we show that using our model's predictions to make interventions boosts engagement metrics by 61.37%. We then formulate the intervention planning problem as restless multi-armed bandits (RMABs), and present preliminary results using this approach.
翻译:印度的产妇死亡率为113, 儿童死亡率为每10万活产中有2830人,而儿童死亡率为每10万活产中有113人。无法获得预防性护理信息是造成这些死亡的主要因素,特别是在资源较少的家庭。我们与印度的一个非营利性机构ARMAN合作,利用一个基于呼唤的信息方案向孕妇和最近分娩婴儿的妇女传播与健康有关的信息。我们分析了在ARMAN制定的方案中登记的30多万名妇女的呼唤记录,并试图确定哪些妇女可能不参与这些呼唤方案,而这些方案被证明能够产生积极的健康结果。我们建立了基于机器的学习模型,以预测呼叫日志和受益人的人口信息的长期参与模式,并通过试点验证来讨论这种方法在现实世界中的可适用性。我们通过随机控制的试验,表明利用我们的模型预测使干预措施能将参与度指标提高61.37%。我们随后将干预规划问题作为无休止的多臂强盗(RMABs)来描述,并用这种方法提出初步结果。