With high levels of intermittent power generation and dynamic demand patterns, accurate forecasts for residential loads have become essential. Smart meters can play an important role when making these forecasts as they provide detailed load data. However, using smart meter data for load forecasting is challenging due to data privacy requirements. This paper investigates how these requirements can be addressed through a combination of federated learning and privacy preserving techniques such as differential privacy and secure aggregation. For our analysis, we employ a large set of residential load data and simulate how different federated learning models and privacy preserving techniques affect performance and privacy. Our simulations reveal that combining federated learning and privacy preserving techniques can secure both high forecasting accuracy and near-complete privacy. Specifically, we find that such combinations enable a high level of information sharing while ensuring privacy of both the processed load data and forecasting models. Moreover, we identify and discuss challenges of applying federated learning, differential privacy and secure aggregation for residential short-term load forecasting.
翻译:由于断断续续的发电和动态需求模式的高度,对住宅负荷的准确预测变得至关重要。智能仪在作出这些预测时可以发挥重要作用,因为它们提供了详细的负荷数据。然而,由于数据隐私的要求,使用智能仪数据进行负荷预测具有挑战性。本文件调查了如何通过结合联合学习和隐私保护技术,如差异隐私和安全聚合,满足这些要求。我们的分析使用大量住宅负荷数据,模拟不同的联合学习模式和隐私保护技术如何影响性能和隐私。我们的模拟显示,结合联合学习和隐私保护技术,既能保证高预报准确性,又能保证近乎完全的隐私。具体地说,我们发现,这种结合可以实现高度的信息共享,同时确保经过处理的负荷数据和预测模型的隐私。此外,我们查明并讨论应用联合学习、差异隐私和安全组合对住宅短期负荷预报的挑战。