Flickering emergences: The question of locality in information-theoretic approaches to emergence

"Emergence", the phenomenon where a complex system displays properties, behaviours, or dynamics not trivially reducible to its constituent elements, is one of the defining properties of complex systems. Recently, there has been a concerted effort to formally define emergence using the mathematical framework of information theory, which proposes that emergence can be understood in terms of how the states of wholes and parts collectively disclose information about the system's collective future. In this paper, we show how a common, foundational component of information-theoretic approaches to emergence implies an inherent instability to emergent properties, which we call flickering emergence. A system may on average display a meaningful emergent property (be it an informative coarse-graining, or higher-order synergy), but for particular configurations, that emergent property falls apart and becomes misinformative. We show existence proofs that flickering emergence occurs in two different frameworks (one based on coarse-graining and another based on multivariate information decomposition) and argue that any approach based on temporal mutual information will display it. Finally, we argue that flickering emergence should not be a disqualifying property of any model of emergence, but that it should be accounted for when attempting to theorize about how emergence relates to practical models of the natural world.