The aim of this paper is to firmly establish subjective fiducial inference as a rival to the more conventional schools of statistical inference, and to show that Fisher's intuition concerning the importance of the fiducial argument was correct. In this regard, methodology outlined in an earlier paper is modified, enhanced and extended to deal with general inferential problems in which various parameters are unknown. As a key part of what is put forward, the joint fiducial distribution of all the parameters of a given model is determined on the basis of the full conditional fiducial distributions of these parameters by using an analytical approach or a Gibbs sampling method, the latter of which does not require these conditional distributions to be compatible. Although the resulting theory is classified as being "subjective", this is essentially due to the argument that all probability statements made about fixed but unknown parameters must be inherently subjective. In particular, it is systematically argued that, in general, there is no need to place a great emphasis on the difference between the fiducial probabilities derived by using this theory of inference and objective probabilities. Some important examples of the application of this theory are presented.
翻译:本文的目的是牢固地确立主观推断,作为比较传统的统计推断学派的对立点,并表明Fisher关于理论重要性的直觉是正确的,在这方面,前一份文件概述的方法经过修改、加强和扩展,以处理各种参数未知的一般推断问题,作为所提意见的一个关键部分,特定模型所有参数的共同分配,是根据使用一种分析方法或Gibbs抽样方法,这些参数的完全有条件的分布来确定的,后者并不要求这些有条件分布相容。虽然由此得出的理论被归类为“主观性”,但主要由于关于固定但未知参数的所有概率说明都必须具有内在主观性的论点,特别是,系统地认为,一般而言,没有必要大力强调使用这种推论和客观概率的推论得出的概率差异。