We define the information threshold as the point of maximum curvature in the prior vs. posterior Bayesian curve, both of which are described as a function of the true positive and negative rates of the classification system in question. The nature of the threshold is such that for sufficiently adequate binary classification systems, retrieving excess information beyond the threshold does not significantly alter the reliability of our classification assessment. We hereby introduce the "marital status thought experiment" to illustrate this idea and report a previously undefined mathematical relationship between the Bayesian prior and posterior, which may have significant philosophical and epistemological implications in decision theory. Where the prior probability is a scalar between 0 and 1 given by $\phi$ and the posterior is a scalar between 0 and 1 given by $\rho$, then at the information threshold, $\phi_e$: $\phi_e + \rho_e = 1$ Otherwise stated, given some degree of prior belief, we may assert its persuasiveness when sufficient quality evidence yields a posterior so that their combined sum equals 1. Retrieving further evidence beyond this point does not significantly improve the posterior probability, and may serve as a benchmark for confidence in decision-making.
翻译:我们将信息阈值定义为先前对后巴伊西亚曲线的最大曲线曲缩点,这两种曲线都被描述为有关分类系统真实正率和负率的函数。阈值的性质是,对于足够充分的二进制分类系统而言,检索超出阈值的超量信息不会大大改变我们分类评估的可靠性。我们在此介绍“婚姻状况思考实验”来说明这一想法,并报告先前巴伊西亚人与后巴伊西亚人之间先前未界定的数学关系,这可能对决策理论具有重大的哲学和认知影响。如果先前的概率在0到1之间,由美元给0.,而后巴伊尔的概率在0到1之间,由美元给0.rho美元,然后在信息阈值上,则美元:$\phi_e+\rho_e=1美元;鉴于先前的某种程度的信念,我们可肯定其说服力,如果充分的质量证据产生后,其组合数等于其合计数,则其说服力是相等的。1. 探索概率可能大大提高决策的概率。