I model the belief formation and decision making processes of economic agents during a monetary policy regime change (an acceleration in the money supply) with a deep reinforcement learning algorithm in the AI literature. I show that when the money supply accelerates, the learning agents only adjust their actions, which include consumption and demand for real balance, after gathering learning experience for many periods. This delayed adjustments leads to low returns during transition periods. Once they start adjusting to the new environment, their welfare improves. Their changes in beliefs and actions lead to temporary inflation volatility. I also show that, 1. the AI agents who explores their environment more adapt to the policy regime change quicker, which leads to welfare improvements and less inflation volatility, and 2. the AI agents who have experienced a structural change adjust their beliefs and behaviours quicker than an inexperienced learning agent.
翻译:我用大赦国际文献中的深入强化学习算法来模拟经济行为主体在货币政策制度变化(货币供应加速)期间的信仰形成和决策过程,我指出,当货币供应加速时,学习行为主体只是在积累了许多时期的学习经验之后,调整其行动,包括消费和对真正平衡的需求;这种延迟调整导致过渡期回报率低;一旦他们开始适应新的环境,他们的福利就会改善;他们的信仰和行动变化导致暂时的通货膨胀波动;我还表明,1. 探索其环境的大赦国际行为主体更迅速地适应政策制度变化,从而导致福利改善和通货膨胀波动减少;2. 经历了结构性变化的大赦国际行为主体比没有经验的学习主体更快地调整其信仰和行为。