Time series forecasting is essential for decision making in many domains. In this work, we address the challenge of predicting prices evolution among multiple potentially interacting financial assets. A solution to this problem has obvious importance for governments, banks, and investors. Statistical methods such as Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) are widely applied to these problems. In this paper, we propose to approach economic time series forecasting of multiple financial assets in a novel way via video prediction. Given past prices of multiple potentially interacting financial assets, we aim to predict the prices evolution in the future. Instead of treating the snapshot of prices at each time point as a vector, we spatially layout these prices in 2D as an image, such that we can harness the power of CNNs in learning a latent representation for these financial assets. Thus, the history of these prices becomes a sequence of images, and our goal becomes predicting future images. We build on a state-of-the-art video prediction method for forecasting future images. Our experiments involve the prediction task of the price evolution of nine financial assets traded in U.S. stock markets. The proposed method outperforms baselines including ARIMA, Prophet, and variations of the proposed method, demonstrating the benefits of harnessing the power of CNNs in the problem of economic time series forecasting.
翻译:在许多领域,时间序列预测对决策至关重要。 在这项工作中,我们应对预测多种潜在互动金融资产价格演变的挑战。 这一问题的解决方案对政府、银行和投资者具有明显的重要性。 统计方法,如自动递减综合移动平均值(ARIMA),被广泛应用于这些问题。 在本文件中,我们提议以视频预测的新方式处理多种金融资产的经济时间序列预测。鉴于过去多种潜在互动金融资产的价格,我们的目标是预测未来价格演变。我们不是将每时点的价格变化作为矢量处理,而是将这些价格贴在2D上,这样我们就可以利用CNN的力量来学习这些金融资产的潜在代表性。因此,这些价格的历史变成了图像的序列,我们的目标是预测未来图像。我们利用一种最先进的视频预测方法来预测未来图像。我们的实验涉及美国股票市场交易的9个金融资产的价格演变预测任务。拟议方法超越了基准,包括ARIMA、先知、以及拟议方法中经济效益的预测。