In subscription-based businesses, the churn rate refers to the percentage of customers who discontinue their subscriptions within a given time period. Particularly, in the mobile games industry, the churn rate is often pronounced due to the high competition and cost in customer acquisition; therefore, the process of minimizing the churn rate is crucial. This needs churn prediction, predicting users who will be churning within a given time period. Accurate churn prediction can enable the businesses to devise and engage strategic remediations to maintain a low churn rate. The paper presents our highly accurate churn prediction method. We designed this method to take into account each individual user's distinct usage period in churn prediction. As presented in the paper, this approach was able to achieve 96.6% churn prediction accuracy on a real game business. In addition, the paper shows that other existing churn prediction algorithms are improved in prediction accuracy when this method is applied.
翻译:在以订户为基础的企业中,批发率是指在一定时期内中断订户的客户的百分比。特别是在移动游戏行业中,由于客户购买过程中的竞争和成本很高,批发率往往会因客户购买过程中的竞争和成本高而高涨;因此,最大限度地减少批发率的过程至关重要。这需要批发预测,预测用户在一定时期内会发声。准确的批发预测可以使企业设计和采用战略补救方法以保持低发率。文件展示了我们非常准确的批发预测方法。我们设计了这种方法,以考虑到每个用户在批发预测中的不同使用期。正如在文件中所介绍的那样,这种方法能够在真正的游戏业务中实现96.6%的预发准确性。此外,文件还显示,在采用这一方法时,其他现有的粗发预测算法在预测准确性方面有所改进。