We define Poisson process models for outage and restore processes in power system resilience events in terms of their rates. These outage and restore processes easily yield the performance curves that track the evolution of resilience events, and their area, nadir and duration are standard resilience metrics. We derive explicit and intuitive formulas for these metrics for mean performance curves in terms of the model parameters; these parameters can be estimated from utility data. This clarifies the calculation of metrics of typical resilience events, and shows what they depend on. We give examples of the metric formulas using a typical model of transmission system outages with lognormal rate restoration, and also for constant rate and exponential rate restorations. We give similarly nice formulas for the area metric for empirical power system data.
翻译:我们根据功率界定了Poisson系统应变事件断流和恢复过程的流程模型。这些断流和恢复过程很容易生成跟踪应变事件演变的性能曲线,其面积、nadir和持续时间是标准的应变度衡量标准。我们从模型参数中为这些计量得出关于中值性能曲线的清晰和直观的公式;这些参数可以从实用数据中估算。这澄清了典型应变事件计量的计算方法,并显示了它们所依赖的内容。我们举例说明了使用典型模式的计量公式,这些模式的传输系统断流与正态速恢复,以及恒定速率和指数恢复。我们为经验性电力系统数据提供了类似好的区域计量公式。</s>