体系环境下区域旅游经济系统的弹性机制研究--以广西两区一带为例

项目名称： 体系环境下区域旅游经济系统的弹性机制研究--以广西两区一带为例

项目编号： No.71463002

项目类型： 地区科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 白丽明

作者单位： 广西财经学院

项目金额： 35万元

中文摘要： 2008年以后，我国旅游产业结构不平衡问题开始凸显，严重制约了旅游经济的可持续发展。同时，世界经济震荡、国际地区争端、自然灾害、流行性疾病、突发事件等旅游危机事件，都对旅游业的稳定发展造成威胁。面对复杂的内外生压力及管理风险，提高旅游经济系统弹性（Resilience）成为实现旅游经济可持续发展的重要途径。因此，本研究以广西两区一带（广西北部湾经济区、西江经济带和桂西资源富集区）为3个研究样本，构建区域旅游经济系统的体系（System of systems）概念模型，以超网络（Supernetwork）工具模拟其拓扑结构与能力动力学机制，在此基础上通过智能计算弈实验 评估旅游经济系统的动态弹性机制。研究对于揭示旅游经济运行可持续性的深层原因及能力基础具有重要意义，可为旅游经济运行与政策仿真、旅游经济监测与预警、旅游危机管理、突发事件影响评估、工具性产业政策评估等提供依据。

中文关键词： 旅游经济系统；弹性；体系；超网络；能力桥梁

英文摘要： After 2008, China's tourism industry began to suffer structural imbalance, seriously hampered the sustainable development of tourism economy. Meanwhile, the world economy shocks, international and regional disputes, natural disasters, epidemic diseases, emergencies and other tourism crisis, constantly threat the stable development of the tourism industry. Facing the complex internal and external pressures and manage risk, improving the resilience of tourist economic system has become an important way to achieve sustainable tourism and economic development. Therefore, taking Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone, western Guangxi region and Xijiang River Economic Belt as three research samples, this study constructs a system of systems (SoS) conceptual model regional tourist economic system, and utilizes Supernetwork tools to simulate its structure and its capability topology dynamic. On this basis, the study conducts an intelligent computing-based game experiment to assess the dynamic resilience mechanism of the tourism SoS. The study can reveal the underlying causes and the capability foundation to run sustainable tourism economic, thus assist the tourism economy and policy simulation, tourism economy monitoring and early warning, tourism crisis management, emergency impact assessment, industrial policy assessment.

英文关键词： Tourist economic system;Resilience;System of systems (SoS);Supernetwork;Capability bridge