Quarantine measure is a commonly used non-pharmaceutical intervention during the outbreak of infectious diseases. A key problem for implementing quarantine measure is to determine the duration of quarantine. In this paper, a policy with optimal quarantine duration is developed. The policy suggests different quarantine durations for every individual with different characteristic. The policy is optimal in the sense that it minimizes the average quarantine duration of uninfected people with the constraint that the probability of symptom presentation for infected people attains the given value closing to 1. The optimal solution for the quarantine duration is obtained and estimated by some statistic methods with application to analyzing COVID-19 data.
翻译:检疫措施是传染病爆发期间常用的非药物干预措施,执行检疫措施的一个关键问题是确定检疫措施的持续时间。本文中提出了最佳检疫期限的政策。该政策为具有不同特征的每个人建议了不同的检疫期限。该政策最理想的办法是最大限度地减少未感染者的平均检疫时间,限制受感染者的症状呈报概率达到一定的关闭值,达到1. 检疫期限的最佳解决办法由某些统计方法获得和估计,用于分析COVID-19数据。