Cointegration analysis was developed for non-stationary linear processes that exhibit stationary relationships between coordinates. Estimation of the cointegration relationships in a multi-dimensional cointegrated process typically proceeds in two steps. First the rank is estimated, then the cointegration matrix is estimated, conditionally on the estimated rank (reduced rank regression). The asymptotics of the estimator is usually derived under the assumption of knowing the true rank. In this paper, we quantify the bias and find the asymptotic distributions of the cointegration estimator in case of misspecified rank. We find that the estimator is unbiased but has increased variance when the rank is overestimated, whereas a bias is introduced for underestimated rank, usually with a smaller variance. If the eigenvalues of a certain eigenvalue problem corresponding to the underestimated rank are small, the bias is small, and it might be preferable to an overestimated rank due to the decreased variance. The results are illustrated on simulated data.
翻译:对显示坐标间固定关系的非静止线性进程进行了合并分析。对多维共集进程中的合并关系进行估计,通常分两个步骤进行。首先,估计等级,然后根据估计等级(降级回归)估计合并矩阵。估计估计估计值的偏差通常是以估计等级(降级回归)为条件的。估计值的偏差通常根据了解真实等级的假设得出。在本文中,我们量化了偏差,发现在定级错误的情况下,合并估计值的分布不均匀。我们发现估计值是公正的,但在估计等级过高时增加了差异,而对估计值过低的等级则引入偏差,通常差异较小。如果与低估等级相对应的某一电子价值问题的精度值很小,则偏差很小,而且由于差异减少,估计值可能比高。结果在模拟数据上说明。