Climate change is one of the key topics in climate science. However, previous research has predominantly concentrated on changes in mean values, and few research examines changes in Probability Distribution Function (PDF). In this study, a novel method called Wasserstein Stability Analysis (WSA) is developed to identify PDF changes, especially the extreme event shift and non-linear physical value constraint variation in climate change. WSA is applied to 21st-century warming slowdown period and is compared with traditional mean-value trend analysis. The result indicates that despite no significant trend, the central-eastern Pacific experienced a decline in hot extremes and an increase in cold extremes, indicating a La Nina-like temperature shift. Further analysis at two Arctic locations suggests sea ice severely restricts the hot extremes of surface air temperature. This impact is diminishing as sea ice melts. Overall, based on detecting PDF changes, WSA is a useful method for re-discovering climate change.
翻译：气候变化是气候科学中的重要议题。然而，先前的研究主要集中在均值的变化上，鲜有研究考虑概率分布函数（PDF）的变化。本研究提出了一种新的方法，称为Wasserstein稳定性分析（WSA），用于确定气候变化中的PDF变化，特别是极端事件的转移和非线性物理值约束的变化。WSA被应用于21世纪的全球变暖放缓周期，并与传统的均值趋势分析进行了比较。结果表明，尽管没有显著的趋势，但中东太平洋地区经历了高温极端事件的下降和低温极端事件的增加，表明类似拉尼娜的温度转移。进一步的分析发现，两个北极地区的海洋位置表明海冰严重限制了表面气温的高温极端事件。随着海冰的融化，这种影响在减弱。总的来说，基于检测PDF的变化，WSA是一种有用的方法，用于再次发现气候变化。
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