We study the problem of parameter estimation for large exchangeable interacting particle systems when a sample of discrete observations from a single particle is known. We propose a novel method based on martingale estimating functions constructed by employing the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the generator of the mean field limit, linearized around the (unique) invariant measure of the mean field dynamics. We then prove that our estimator is asymptotically unbiased and asymptotically normal when the number of observations and the number of particles tend to infinity, and we provide a rate of convergence towards the exact value of the parameters. Finally, we present several numerical experiments which show the accuracy of our estimator and corroborate our theoretical findings, even in the case the mean field dynamics exhibit more than one steady states.
翻译:当人们知道一个粒子的离散观测样本时,我们研究大型可交换互动粒子系统的参数估计问题。我们建议采用一种新的方法,以利用中值场限生成器的精精度值和元元元计算的马丁格尔估计功能为基础,围绕中值场动态的(独有的)异度度测量线进行线性计算。然后,我们证明我们的测算器在观测数量和粒子数量趋于无限时是无损的和无损正常的,我们提供了与参数准确值的趋同率。最后,我们提出数个数字实验,显示我们测算器的准确性,并证实我们的理论结论,即使平均场动态显示一个以上的稳定状态。