In this paper reference and probability-matching priors are derived for the univariate Student $t$-distribution. These priors generally lead to procedures with properties frequentists can relate to while still retaining Bayes validity. The priors are tested by performing simulation studies. The focus is on the relative mean squared error from the posterior median ($MSE(\nu)/\nu$) and on the frequentist coverage of the 95\% credibility intervals for a sample size of $n=30$. Average interval lengths of the credibility intervals as well as the modes of the interval lengths based on 2000 simulations are also considered. The performance of the priors are also tested on real data, namely daily logarithmic returns of IBM stocks.
翻译:在本文中,为单体学生提供参考和概率比对前置数据,这些前置数据一般导致与常客特性有关的程序,在保留贝耶斯有效性的同时,还可以保留常客特性。前置数据通过模拟研究进行测试,重点是后置中位值(MSE(nu)/\nu$)的相对平均平方差,以及抽样规模为n=30美元的95 ⁇ 可信度间隔的常客范围。还考虑了可信度间隔的平均间隔长度以及基于2000年模拟的间隔模式。前置数据的性能也根据真实数据,即IBM库存的每日对数回报进行测试。